The Single Greatest Predictor Of Canadian Stock Market Returns – Part 1

In 2013, financial blogger and analyst Jesse Livermore (pseudonym) published a widely distributed piece titled "The Single Greatest Predictor of Future Stock Market Returns" 1 .  In it, he introduced a novel way of calculating the stock market allocation of the average U.S. investor and showed how changes to this metric explained approximately 91% of the change in subsequent 10-year stock market returns. Not only did he show the metric's remarkable predictive power to forecast...