The Rear-View Mirror Is Worth Looking Into Past results are no guarantee of future returns, but what else have you got?

As a business journalist in the mid-1990s, I had the privilege of interviewing Sir John Templeton, founder of the Templeton Growth Fund and arguably the best stock-picker of the twentieth century. During one of his Toronto rallies, he spoke out against the boilerplate commentary that had to be written into mutual fund prospectuses, namely, that past returns are no guarantee of future results. Forecasting the future performance of any investment is, of course, difficult, he said, but it...